Current cap in sample
$21.5T
Published companies with enough metric coverage to map cleanly.
Insights · Capital release atlas
Where the largest repricing arguments live
The atlas plots moat against decentralizability, sizes each bubble by current market cap, and highlights where the current published sample appears most exposed to open, local, and protocol-native substitution.
Capital at risk
$2.6T
Directional freed-capital estimate across the current published sample.
Average at-risk share
10.9%
Mean challenged share of current market cap across the plotted companies.
Largest exposure
Microsoft
$523.2B challenged
Quadrant map
Moat on the vertical, decentralizability on the horizontal
Upper-right is the danger zone for a consensus that still assumes the moat is immortal. Bubble size tracks current market cap rather than thesis intensity.
On phones, the key reading is the ranked exposure list below. The desktop quadrant chart returns on larger screens where the bubble map can breathe.
Microsoft
Enterprise software and cloud infrastructure giant spanning productivity, developer platforms, and operating systems.
At risk
$523.2B
Moat9.1/10
Decentralizability6.4/10
Current cap
$3.3T
Share challenged
15.9%
Meta Platforms
Ad-supported social and messaging empire anchored by Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
At risk
$446B
Moat7.9/10
Decentralizability7.4/10
Current cap
$1.8T
Share challenged
24.8%
Alphabet
Search, ads, video, mobile, and cloud giant still centered economically on attention capture.
At risk
$444.3B
Moat8.7/10
Decentralizability6.8/10
Current cap
$2.4T
Share challenged
18.5%
Amazon
Retail, logistics, advertising, and cloud juggernaut with scale in both atoms and bits.
At risk
$301.3B
Moat8.9/10
Decentralizability5.7/10
Current cap
$2.2T
Share challenged
13.7%
Apple
A vertically integrated device and services empire built around the iPhone.
At risk
$234.3B
Moat9.3/10
Decentralizability2.8/10
Current cap
$3.7T
Share challenged
6.3%
NVIDIA
GPU kingmaker for AI training, inference, gaming, and high-performance compute.
At risk
$222.5B
Moat9.6/10
Decentralizability2.5/10
Current cap
$4.3T
Share challenged
5.2%
Tesla
EV, charging, energy storage, and autonomy company that sells both products and future narratives.
At risk
$190B
Moat7.4/10
Decentralizability5.9/10
Current cap
$1T
Share challenged
19.0%
Broadcom
Semiconductor and infrastructure software consolidator with critical exposure to networking and virtualization.
At risk
$117.8B
Moat8.6/10
Decentralizability3.8/10
Current cap
$1.1T
Share challenged
10.7%
Walmart
Scale retail and grocery giant whose moat lives in sourcing, logistics, and physical footprint.
At risk
$97B
Moat8.2/10
Decentralizability4.4/10
Current cap
$800B
Share challenged
12.1%
Berkshire Hathaway
Conglomerate spanning insurance, rail, utilities, manufacturing, and a massive equity portfolio.
At risk
$43.5B
Moat8.8/10
Decentralizability1.9/10
Current cap
$900B
Share challenged
4.8%
Bank of America
One of the world's largest financial institutions offering consumer banking, wealth management through Merrill, and global banking and markets services.
At risk
$29
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$320
Share challenged
9.0%
Coca-Cola
Global beverage company spanning sparkling soft drinks, water, juice, coffee, tea, and sports drinks.
At risk
$12
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$260
Share challenged
4.8%
Caterpillar
World's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines, supported by Cat Financial's global equipment financing.
At risk
$8
Moat8.5/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$150
Share challenged
5.5%
Applied Materials
Applied Materials is the world's largest supplier of semiconductor and display manufacturing equipment, enabling chipmakers globally to fabricate integrated circuits and flat-panel displays.
At risk
$3
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability1.0/10
Current cap
$140
Share challenged
2.4%
Bubble position = moat and decentralizability
Bubble size = current market cap
Quick reads
A few obvious takeaways
Sometimes the point of a chart is not nuance. It is to force the right comparison.
Largest current exposure
Microsoft
$523.2B challenged, or 15.9% of current cap.
Most decentralizable giant
Meta Platforms
7.4/10 decentralizability with a 7.9/10 moat.
Deepest moat in sample
NVIDIA
9.6/10 moat with $4.3T in current equity value.
Ranked exposures
Who matters most if the rents compress?
This list ranks the currently published companies by the model's freed-capital estimate, then keeps the underlying moat and decentralizability scores visible beside it.
Microsoft
Enterprise software and cloud infrastructure giant spanning productivity, developer platforms, and operating systems.
At risk
$523.2B
Moat
9.1/10
Decentral.
6.4/10
Share challenged
15.9%
Meta Platforms
Ad-supported social and messaging empire anchored by Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
At risk
$446B
Moat
7.9/10
Decentral.
7.4/10
Share challenged
24.8%
Alphabet
Search, ads, video, mobile, and cloud giant still centered economically on attention capture.
At risk
$444.3B
Moat
8.7/10
Decentral.
6.8/10
Share challenged
18.5%
Amazon
Retail, logistics, advertising, and cloud juggernaut with scale in both atoms and bits.
At risk
$301.3B
Moat
8.9/10
Decentral.
5.7/10
Share challenged
13.7%
Apple
A vertically integrated device and services empire built around the iPhone.
At risk
$234.3B
Moat
9.3/10
Decentral.
2.8/10
Share challenged
6.3%
NVIDIA
GPU kingmaker for AI training, inference, gaming, and high-performance compute.
At risk
$222.5B
Moat
9.6/10
Decentral.
2.5/10
Share challenged
5.2%
Tesla
EV, charging, energy storage, and autonomy company that sells both products and future narratives.
At risk
$190B
Moat
7.4/10
Decentral.
5.9/10
Share challenged
19.0%
Broadcom
Semiconductor and infrastructure software consolidator with critical exposure to networking and virtualization.
At risk
$117.8B
Moat
8.6/10
Decentral.
3.8/10
Share challenged
10.7%
Walmart
Scale retail and grocery giant whose moat lives in sourcing, logistics, and physical footprint.
At risk
$97B
Moat
8.2/10
Decentral.
4.4/10
Share challenged
12.1%
Berkshire Hathaway
Conglomerate spanning insurance, rail, utilities, manufacturing, and a massive equity portfolio.
At risk
$43.5B
Moat
8.8/10
Decentral.
1.9/10
Share challenged
4.8%
Bank of America
One of the world's largest financial institutions offering consumer banking, wealth management through Merrill, and global banking and markets services.
At risk
$29
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
9.0%
Coca-Cola
Global beverage company spanning sparkling soft drinks, water, juice, coffee, tea, and sports drinks.
At risk
$12
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
4.8%
Caterpillar
World's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines, supported by Cat Financial's global equipment financing.
At risk
$8
Moat
8.5/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
5.5%
Applied Materials
Applied Materials is the world's largest supplier of semiconductor and display manufacturing equipment, enabling chipmakers globally to fabricate integrated circuits and flat-panel displays.
At risk
$3
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
1.0/10
Share challenged
2.4%